Cincinnati Reds

Spencer Steer Strikeouts (batter)

Stats updated: Jul 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Spencer Steer has gone over 0.5 SO in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: 5 seasons

Line

PrizePicksStrikeouts (batter) · season avg 0.9 SO · our line

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Injured ListSpencer Steer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Wrist Sprain
Est. return:: Sep 1, 2026

Steer suffered the injury on a swing during Sunday's game in St. Louis and was placed on the injured list Monday. The hope is that he can avoid surgery and the injury heals with rest, but it's no guarantee that will happen. A timeline for Steer's return likely won't be available until after the two-week shutdown.

Verdict

vs 0.5 SOStrikeouts (batter)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 60% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)84supports it

Projection vs line60neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup75supports it

Projection

0.7 SO(×1.00 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2020 games

60%over

12 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%

Season91 games

62%over

56 over · 35 under

High confidence95% CI 51%–71%

Alternate lines — Strikeouts (batter) (SO)

SO over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SO line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	62%	56/91
	24%	22/91
	5%	5/91
	0%	0/91

Last 20 games — SO per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 SO by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home57%26/46Medium

Away67%30/45Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)57%36/63High

1 day70%16/23Medium

2 days100%2/2Low

3+ days100%1/1Low

With a teammate out

How this SO line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Blake Dunn out · Right Elbow Surgery

Without (59g)

0.9 SO

61% over 0.5

With (32g)

1.0 SO

63% over 0.5

Next matchup — vs ATH

Aug 5, 2026

13thof 30 in SO allowed to hitters

ATH pitching allows 8.5 SO per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 112 games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 10 games, Spencer Steer has gone over 0.5 SO 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 62% across the full season. ATH has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 13th-most SO of 30 teams (8.5 per game). His game-to-game SO have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Great American Ball Park · Cincinnati Reds

hitter-friendly (runs ×1.05, HR ×1.18)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 62%.