Loading…
Kansas City RoyalsSteven Cruz
#64 · P · 6-7 · 225 lb · 40 games
Stats updated: Aug 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Cold underFireFactor 58/100· model 72% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.9 K
L5 0.6 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
0%over
0 over · 5 under
Medium confidence95% CI 0%–43%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2020 games
20%over
4 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 8%–42%Season40 games
30%over
12 over · 28 under
Medium confidence95% CI 18%–45%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 31/40 | ||
| 1.5Current | 30% | 12/40 | |
| 10% | 4/40 | ||
| 3% | 1/40 | ||
| 0% | 0/40 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home26%6/23Medium
Away35%6/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)13%1/8Medium
1 day6%1/17Medium
2 days67%4/6Low
3+ days75%6/8Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Maikel Garcia out · Left Hand Strain-0.6 K when he sits
Without (21g)
0.9 K
19% over 1.5
With (19g)
1.5 K
42% over 1.5
Jonathan India out · Left Shoulder Surgery-0.2 K when he sits
Without (35g)
1.2 K
31% over 1.5
With (5g)
1.4 K
20% over 1.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Steven Cruz has gone over 1.5 K 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 30% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Kauffman Stadium · Kansas City Royals
neutral (runs ×1.02, HR ×0.93)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 30%.