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San Diego PadresSung-Mun Song
#24 · 2B · 6-0 · 194 lb · 35 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Republic of Korea
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 0.6 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)69supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.5 H(×0.88 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season35 games
43%over
15 over · 20 under
Medium confidence95% CI 28%–59%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 43% | 15/35 | |
| 11% | 4/35 | ||
| 3% | 1/35 | ||
| 0% | 0/35 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home39%7/18Medium
Away47%8/17Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)38%5/13Low
1 day50%4/8Low
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days33%3/9Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Ramón Laureano out · Right Hip Surgery+0.5 H when he sits
Without (29g)
0.7 H
48% over 0.5
With (6g)
0.2 H
17% over 0.5
Samad Taylor out · Right Oblique Strain-0.2 H when he sits
Without (25g)
0.5 H
36% over 0.5
With (10g)
0.7 H
60% over 0.5
Next matchup — vs HOU
Aug 8, 2026
22ndof 30 in H allowed to hitters
HOU pitching allows 7.9 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Sung-Mun Song has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 43% across the full season. HOU has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 22nd-most H of 30 teams (7.9 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Petco Park · San Diego Padres
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.95, HR ×0.96)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Line shopping — Hits (H)
Each book’s line and your season under rate at that number, vs the market consensus (0.5 H). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
under rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 43%.