Chicago White Sox

Tanner Murray Runs

Stats updated: Apr 26, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tanner Murray has gone over 0.5 R in 2 of his last 10 decided games (20%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: USA
Experience: Rookie

Line

PrizePicksRuns · season avg 0.2 R · our line

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Injured ListTanner Murray isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Left Shoulder Surgery
Est. return:: Sep 1, 2026

The move opens up a spot on the 40-man roster for Randal Grichuk, who signed a one-year major-league deal with the White Sox on Monday. Murray suffered a left shoulder dislocation and fracture while making a diving catch in left field against the Nationals in late April. His recovery timeline was initially set at 4-to-6 months, which means he won't be available to return until at least late August.

Verdict

vs 0.5 RRuns

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 83% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it

Projection vs line83supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup100supports it

Projection

0.2 R(×1.12 context)

L5 0.2 · L10 0.2 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 0.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

20%over

1 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%

Last 1010 games

20%over

2 over · 8 under

Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%

Last 2011 games

18%over

2 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 5%–48%

Season11 games

18%over

2 over · 9 under

Medium confidence95% CI 5%–48%

Alternate lines — Runs (R)

R over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate R line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	18%	2/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11
	0%	0/11

Last 11 games — R per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 R by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home17%1/6Low

Away20%1/5Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low

1 day0%0/2Low

2 days0%0/3Low

3+ days0%0/1Low

Next matchup — @ BOS

Aug 5, 2026

30thof 30 in R allowed to hitters

BOS pitching allows 3.7 R per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 111 games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tanner Murray has gone over 0.5 R 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 18% across the full season. BOS has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 30th-most R of 30 teams (3.7 per game). His game-to-game R have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Rate Field · Chicago White Sox

neutral (runs ×1.01, HR ×1.06)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 18%.