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Colorado RockiesToby Rumfield
#7 · 1B · 6-5 · 238 lb · 104 games
Stats updated: Aug 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 1.1 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsBlazing overFireFactor 79/100· model 72% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line72supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
1.0 H(×1.12 context)
L5 1.2 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season104 games
69%over
72 over · 32 under
High confidence95% CI 60%–77%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 69% | 72/104 | |
| 28% | 29/104 | ||
| 9% | 9/104 | ||
| 1% | 1/104 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home71%39/55High
Away67%33/49Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)73%58/80High
1 day65%11/17Medium
2 days25%1/4Low
3+ days100%1/1Low
Next matchup — @ STL
Aug 7, 2026
7thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
STL pitching allows 8.6 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 115 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Toby Rumfield has gone over 0.5 H 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 69% across the full season. STL has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 7th-most H of 30 teams (8.6 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Coors Field · Colorado Rockies
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.20, HR ×1.16)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 69%.