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San Francisco GiantsTrevor McDonald
#72 · P · 6-0 · 205 lb · 14 games
Stats updated: Jul 20, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.1 KSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutTrevor McDonald isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Sep 1, 2027
McDonald is set to miss the rest of the season and most of 2027 after undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery earlier this month, so the Giants will stash him away on the 60-day IL. The move frees up a 40-man spot for Shay Whitcomb, who was claimed off waivers from Houston on Thursday.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 69% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)95supports it
Projection vs line69supports it
Consistency20argues against it
Projection
3.4 K
L5 3.0 · L10 3.6 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 5.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2014 games
36%over
5 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 16%–61%Season14 games
36%over
5 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 16%–61%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 12/14 | ||
| 86% | 12/14 | ||
| 71% | 10/14 | ||
| 4.5Current | 36% | 5/14 | |
| 21% | 3/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home29%2/7Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
3+ days31%4/13Medium
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Matt Chapman out · Not Specified Abdomen Surgery-0.1 K when he sits
Without (5g)
4.0 K
40% over 4.5
With (9g)
4.1 K
33% over 4.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, Trevor McDonald has gone over 4.5 K 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 36% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Oracle Park · San Francisco Giants
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.92, HR ×0.85)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 36%.