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Boston Red SoxTsung-Che Cheng
#39 · SS · 5-8 · 180 lb · 13 games
Stats updated: Jul 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Taiwan
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.8 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
0.6 H(×0.99 context)
L5 0.4 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2013 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Season13 games
54%over
7 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 29%–77%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 54% | 7/13 | |
| 23% | 3/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 | ||
| 0% | 0/13 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away75%3/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)20%1/5Low
1 day50%1/2Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days100%2/2Low
Next matchup — vs ATH
Aug 9, 2026
2ndof 30 in H allowed to hitters
ATH pitching allows 9.3 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Tsung-Che Cheng has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 54% across the full season. ATH has been a favorable matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 2nd-most H of 30 teams (9.3 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Fenway Park · Boston Red Sox
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.08, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 54%.