Baltimore Orioles

Tyler O'Neill Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

Stats updated: Aug 22, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tyler O'Neill has gone over 4.5 FS in 5 of his last 10 decided games (50%), measured against our typical-game line.

Country: Canada
Experience: 9 seasons

Line

Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) · season avg 5.3 FS

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Injured ListTyler O'Neill isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Right Shoulder Strain
Est. return:: Feb 1, 2027

O'Neill had already been ruled out for the remainder of the season with a strained right rotator cuff, but the goal of the injection is to speed along the healing process. He's fully expected to be ready to go in time for spring training. O'Neill slashed just .212/.300/.377 over 85 games for the Orioles this season, and he is set to make $16.5 million in 2027 in the final year of his three-year, $49.5 million contract.

Verdict

vs 4.5 FSHitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks)

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 49% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral

Projection vs line49neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

3.9 FS(×1.10 context)

L5 2.6 · L10 4.8 · med 4.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 8.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

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Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 1010 games

50%over

5 over · 5 under

Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%

Last 2020 games

50%over

10 over · 10 under

Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%

Season58 games

50%over

29 over · 29 under

High confidence95% CI 38%–62%

Alternate lines — Hitter Fantasy Score (PrizePicks) (FS)

FS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate FS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
	74%	43/58
	67%	39/58
	60%	35/58
4.5Current	50%	29/58
	36%	21/58
	31%	18/58
	22%	13/58

Last 20 games — FS per game vs. line 4.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 4.5 FS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home54%15/28Medium

Away47%14/30Medium

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)46%12/26Medium

1 day50%5/10Low

2 days43%3/7Low

3+ days57%8/14Low

With a teammate out

How this FS line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.

Jackson Holliday out · Left Wrist Surgery

Without (24g)

5.3 FS

50% over 4.5

With (34g)

5.3 FS

50% over 4.5

Ryan Mountcastle out · Not Specified Oblique Strain-3.4 FS when he sits

Without (53g)

5.0 FS

47% over 4.5

With (5g)

8.4 FS

80% over 4.5

Last matchup — vs TB

Aug 22, 2026

25thof 30 in FS allowed to hitters

TB pitching allows 60.4 FS per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 162 games

Tough

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tyler O'Neill has gone over 4.5 FS 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. TB has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 25th-most FS of 30 teams (60.4 per game). His game-to-game FS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 5.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Home park

Camden Yards · Baltimore Orioles

neutral (runs ×1.00, HR ×1.05)

Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.