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Minnesota TwinsWalker Jenkins
#11 · CF · 6-3 · 210 lb · 23 games
Stats updated: Sep 27, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Hits · season avg 0.8 HSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutWalker Jenkins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
The procedure involved a debridement of the joint, as well as the removal of a bone chip and bone spur. Jenkins is expected to be ready to go for the beginning of spring training. The 21-year-old outfielder went 4-for-45 in his first 16 games for the Twins this season but closed the year with a 1.015 OPS and three home runs over his final 10 contests. Jenkins should enter the 2027 campaign as one of the team's starting outfielders.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 58% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line58neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.1 H(×1.02 context)
L5 1.0 · L10 1.4 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season23 games
52%over
12 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 33%–71%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 52% | 12/23 | |
| 17% | 4/23 | ||
| 9% | 2/23 | ||
| 0% | 0/23 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home42%5/12Low
Away64%7/11Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)56%9/16Medium
1 day0%0/4Low
2 days100%2/2Low
Last matchup — vs TEX
Sep 27, 2026
12thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
TEX pitching allows 8.4 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 162 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Walker Jenkins has gone over 0.5 H 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 52% across the full season. TEX has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 12th-most H of 30 teams (8.4 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Target Field · Minnesota Twins
neutral (runs ×0.99, HR ×0.98)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.