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Colorado RockiesWelinton Herrera
#59 · P · 6-0 · 198 lb · 3 games
Stats updated: May 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.7 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListWelinton Herrera isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Elbow Surgery
- Est. return:
- Jul 1, 2027
Colorado placed Herrera on the 15-day injured list Friday due to left elbow inflammation, but he was shifted to the 60-day IL just two days later after a follow-up MRI apparently revealed that the 22-year-old reliever was dealing with ligament damage. Schaeffer said that the Rockies don't currently have a timeline for Herrera to go under the knife, as the left-hander will presumably receive additional medical evaluations before deciding whether to get Tommy John surgery, an internal brace procedure or a hybrid of the two. Even if Herrera avoids a UCL reconstruction and instead has a UCL repair surgery, he's still likely to require close to a full year of rehab and recovery before returning to game action in the middle or second half of the 2027 season.
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)99supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.7 K
L5 0.7 · L10 0.7 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.2
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 53 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 103 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Last 203 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Season3 games
33%over
1 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–79%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 33% | 1/3 | |
| 33% | 1/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 | ||
| 0% | 0/3 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/1Low
Away50%1/2Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
2 days0%0/1Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 3 games, Welinton Herrera has gone over 0.5 K 1 of 3 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Coors Field · Colorado Rockies
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.20, HR ×1.16)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.