Loading…
Detroit TigersWenceel Pérez
#46 · RF · 5-11 · 203 lb · 45 games
Stats updated: Jun 16, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Dominican Republic
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 0.6 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListWenceel Pérez isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Orbital Fracture
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Perez suffered an orbital fracture and blurred vision back in June when he was struck in the face by an exercise band. He had to be pulled off a rehab assignment in August because his vision still wasn't back to normal, and it seems Perez will run out of time to return before the curtains close on the regular season.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)66supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup50neutral
Projection
0.5 H(×0.97 context)
L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 0.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season45 games
44%over
20 over · 25 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–59%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 44% | 20/45 | |
| 13% | 6/45 | ||
| 0% | 0/45 | ||
| 0% | 0/45 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home41%9/22Medium
Away48%11/23Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)44%12/27Medium
1 day67%6/9Low
2 days33%2/6Low
3+ days0%0/1Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Kerry Carpenter out · Right Foot Plantar Fasciitis+0.1 H when he sits
Without (20g)
0.7 H
55% over 0.5
With (25g)
0.5 H
36% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ CWS
Sep 20, 2026
16thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
CWS pitching allows 8.1 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 154 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Wenceel Pérez has gone over 0.5 H 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 44% across the full season. CWS has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 16th-most H of 30 teams (8.1 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Comerica Park · Detroit Tigers
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.96, HR ×0.91)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.