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Colorado RockiesWilli Castro
#3 · 2B · 6-0 · 209 lb · 108 games
Stats updated: Aug 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Puerto Rico
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Hits · season avg 1.0 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListWilli Castro isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Heel Plantar Fasciitis
- Est. return:
- Feb 1, 2027
Castro has been on the injured list since Sept. 5 due to left heel plantar fasciitis and right knee soreness, and rather than attempting to ramp back up with the hope of playing in the final week and a half of the season, he's instead elected to shut himself down. After joining the Rockies on a two-year deal over the winter, the 29-year-old slashed .260/.331/.417 with 15 home runs, 10 stolen bases, 65 runs and 56 RBI in 120 games during his first season in Colorado.
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 71% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line71supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
0.9 H(×1.02 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
80%over
16 over · 4 under
Medium confidence95% CI 58%–92%Season108 games
72%over
78 over · 30 under
High confidence95% CI 63%–80%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 72% | 78/108 | |
| 24% | 26/108 | ||
| 4% | 4/108 | ||
| 1% | 1/108 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home82%42/51High
Away63%36/57High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)72%57/79High
1 day71%12/17Medium
2 days86%6/7Low
3+ days75%3/4Low
Next matchup — vs AZ
Sep 23, 2026
11thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
AZ pitching allows 8.4 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 156 games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Willi Castro has gone over 0.5 H 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 72% across the full season. AZ has been a middling matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 11th-most H of 30 teams (8.4 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Coors Field · Colorado Rockies
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.20, HR ×1.16)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 72%.