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Boston Red SoxWilliam Bennett
#64 · P · 6-6 · 234 lb · 12 games
Stats updated: Aug 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.2 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)Hot overFireFactor 58/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency25argues against it
Projection
4.1 K
L5 3.8 · L10 4.6 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 4.8
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2012 games
67%over
8 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 39%–86%Season12 games
67%over
8 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 39%–86%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 12/12 | ||
| 92% | 11/12 | ||
| 92% | 11/12 | ||
| 3.5Current | 67% | 8/12 | |
| 25% | 3/12 | ||
| 17% | 2/12 | ||
| 8% | 1/12 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home33%2/6Low
Away100%6/6Medium
Days since last game
3+ days73%8/11Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 10 games, William Bennett has gone over 3.5 K 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 67% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Fenway Park · Boston Red Sox
hitter-friendly (runs ×1.08, HR ×0.97)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 67%.