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Miami MarlinsWilliam Kempner
#71 · P · 6-0 · 222 lb · 9 games
Stats updated: Jul 11, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 1.6 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListWilliam Kempner isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Right Elbow Sprain
- Est. return:
- Aug 10, 2026
Kempner was called upon to pitch Thursday against Seattle and Saturday versus Cleveland and struggled in both games, allowing four runs on five hits with three strikeouts and two walks over 2.1 innings. He'll now be sidelined until at least July 27 due to the elbow issue.
Verdict
vs 1.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 53% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)64supports it
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.6 K
L5 1.8 · L10 1.6 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.6 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 109 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Last 209 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Season9 games
44%over
4 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 19%–73%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 7/9 | ||
| 1.5Current | 44% | 4/9 | |
| 33% | 3/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 | ||
| 0% | 0/9 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%2/5Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day100%1/1Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 9 games, William Kempner has gone over 1.5 K 4 of 9 decided times (44%) — versus 44% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
loanDepot park · Miami Marlins
pitcher-friendly (runs ×0.94, HR ×0.92)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 44%.