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Los Angeles AngelsYusei Kikuchi
#16 · P · 6-0 · 210 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Apr 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Japan
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 4.7 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Injured ListInjured ListYusei Kikuchi isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder Inflammation
- Est. return:
- Aug 15, 2026
Kikuchi has been out of action since April 29 due to left shoulder inflammation. The veteran southpaw began tossing bullpens in early July and is now ready to return to game action. According to Bollinger, Kikuchi believes he'll need three rehab starts before returning to the Angels' rotation. That means he's unlikely to be activated until at least mid-August.
Verdict
vs 4.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 0/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency14argues against it
Projection
4.4 K
L5 5.0 · L10 4.7 · med 5.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 3.0 · ceil 7.4
Matchup
—
no matchup
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 57% | 4/7 | ||
| 4.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 29% | 2/7 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%2/2Low
Away40%2/5Low
Days since last game
3+ days67%4/6Low
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 7 games, Yusei Kikuchi has gone over 4.5 K 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Angel Stadium · Los Angeles Angels
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.