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Los Angeles AngelsZachary Neto
#9 · SS · 5-11 · 185 lb · 112 games
Stats updated: Aug 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- USA
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Hits · season avg 0.9 H · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 HHitsWarm overFireFactor 44/100· model 64% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)94supports it
Projection vs line64supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.8 H(×1.02 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.7 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season112 games
65%over
73 over · 39 under
High confidence95% CI 56%–73%Alternate lines — Hits (H)
H over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 65% | 73/112 | |
| 22% | 25/112 | ||
| 4% | 4/112 | ||
| 0% | 0/112 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 H by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home65%35/54High
Away66%38/58High
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)64%61/95High
1 day69%9/13Medium
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days100%2/2Low
With a teammate out
How this H line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Yoán Moncada out · Right Knee Surgery
Without (71g)
0.9 H
66% over 0.5
With (41g)
0.9 H
63% over 0.5
Sebastián Rivero out · Left Hand Surgery
Without (94g)
0.9 H
64% over 0.5
With (18g)
0.9 H
72% over 0.5
Next matchup — @ MIA
Aug 8, 2026
25thof 30 in H allowed to hitters
MIA pitching allows 7.6 H per game to hitters (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 117 games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Zachary Neto has gone over 0.5 H 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 65% across the full season. MIA has been a tough matchup for hitters this season, allowing the 25th-most H of 30 teams (7.6 per game). His game-to-game H have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Angel Stadium · Los Angeles Angels
neutral (runs ×0.98, HR ×1.02)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 65%.