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Philadelphia PhilliesZachery Pop
P · 6-4 · 220 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Apr 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Country
- Canada
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Strikeouts (pitcher) · season avg 0.9 K · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 KStrikeouts (pitcher)No readFireFactor 7/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)71supports it
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.8 K
L5 1.0 · L10 0.9 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
—
no matchup
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 107 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Last 207 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Season7 games
57%over
4 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 25%–84%Alternate lines — Strikeouts (pitcher) (K)
K over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 57% | 4/7 | |
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 14% | 1/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 K by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/1Low
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
With a teammate out
How this K line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Rafael Marchán out · Left Knee Tendinitis+0.9 K when he sits
Without (4g)
1.3 K
75% over 0.5
With (3g)
0.3 K
33% over 0.5
No matchup data for this prop yet.
The read
Over his last 7 games, Zachery Pop has gone over 0.5 K 4 of 7 decided times (57%) — versus 57% across the full season. His game-to-game K have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Home park
Citizens Bank Park · Philadelphia Phillies
neutral (runs ×1.03, HR ×1.09)
Park context for this player's home games. Not folded into the hit rates above — those already reflect the parks they've played in.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.