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Toronto FCAlonso Coello
#14 · M · 6' 1" · 181 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Jul 31, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Linepays more
Shots · season avg 0.5 SH · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 1/100· model 11% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line18argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
0.7 SH
L5 0.6 · L10 0.8 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2018 games
6%over
1 over · 17 under
High confidence95% CI 1%–26%Season18 games
6%over
1 over · 17 under
High confidence95% CI 1%–26%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 44% | 8/18 | ||
| 1.5Current | 6% | 1/18 | |
| 0% | 0/18 | ||
| 0% | 0/18 | ||
| 0% | 0/18 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/9Medium
Away11%1/9Medium
Days since last game
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days0%0/15High
Last matchup — @ NYC
Jul 31, 2026
23rdof 32 in SH allowed to midfielders
NYC allows 0.8 SH per game to midfielders (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 101 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alonso Coello has gone over 1.5 SH 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 6% across the full season. NYC has been a tough matchup for midfielders this season, allowing the 23rd-most SH of 32 teams (0.8 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 6%.