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Seattle SoundersAndy Thomas
#26 · G · 6' 2" · 181 lb · 24 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Saves · season avg 3.9 SV · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 SVSavesHot overFireFactor 51/100· model 67% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency16argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
4.8 SV(×1.08 context)
L5 5.6 · L10 4.7 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.6 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season24 games
58%over
14 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–76%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 96% | 23/24 | ||
| 88% | 21/24 | ||
| 79% | 19/24 | ||
| 3.5Current | 58% | 14/24 | |
| 33% | 8/24 | ||
| 17% | 4/24 | ||
| 8% | 2/24 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home64%7/11Low
Away54%7/13Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days67%2/3Low
3+ days58%11/19Medium
Next matchup — vs RSL
Sep 24, 2026
4thof 32 in SV allowed to goalkeepers
RSL allows 4.0 SV per game to goalkeepers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Andy Thomas has gone over 3.5 SV 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 58% across the full season. RSL has been a favorable matchup for goalkeepers this season, allowing the 4th-most SV of 32 teams (4.0 per game). His game-to-game SV have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.