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LAFCDenis Bouanga
#99 · F · 5' 11" · 152 lb · 18 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 2.9 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)75supports it
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency11argues against it
Projection
2.2 SH
L5 2.0 · L10 2.4 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2018 games
61%over
11 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–80%Season18 games
61%over
11 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–80%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 94% | 17/18 | ||
| 83% | 15/18 | ||
| 2.5Current | 61% | 11/18 | |
| 33% | 6/18 | ||
| 11% | 2/18 | ||
| 6% | 1/18 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home56%5/9Low
Away67%6/9Low
Days since last game
1 day50%1/2Low
3+ days60%9/15Medium
Last matchup — @ VAN
Aug 1, 2026
32ndof 32 in SH allowed to forwards
VAN allows 1.0 SH per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Denis Bouanga has gone over 2.5 SH 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 61% across the full season. VAN has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 32nd-most SH of 32 teams (1.0 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 61%.