Portland Timbers

Gage Guerra Shots on Target

Stats updated: May 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Gage Guerra has gone over 0.5 SOT in 2 of his last 6 decided games (33%), measured against our typical-game line.

Line

PrizePicksShots on Target · season avg 0.3 SOT · our line

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Verdict

vs 0.5 SOTShots on Target

Cool underFireFactor 42/100· model 72% under

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)98supports it

Projection vs line72supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

0.3 SOT

L5 0.4 · L10 0.3 · med 0.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

40%over

2 over · 3 under

Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%

Last 106 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Last 206 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Season6 games

33%over

2 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 10%–70%

Alternate lines — Shots on Target (SOT)

SOT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SOT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	33%	2/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6
	0%	0/6

Last 6 games — SOT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 SOT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/2Low

Away50%2/4Low

Days since last game

3+ days40%2/5Low

Last matchup — @ MIA

May 17, 2026

21stof 32 in SOT allowed to forwards

MIA allows 0.6 SOT per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 73 player-games

Neutral

The read

Over his last 6 games, Gage Guerra has gone over 0.5 SOT 2 of 6 decided times (33%) — versus 33% across the full season. MIA has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 21st-most SOT of 32 teams (0.6 per game). His game-to-game SOT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 33%.