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Inter MiamiGermán Berterame Shots on Target
Stats updated: Jul 25, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Germán Berterame has gone over 2.5 SOT in 1 of his last 10 decided games (10%), measured against our typical-game line.
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Shots on Target · season avg 1.0 SOT · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
PrizePicks payout options — Shots on Target (SOT)
Pick any line — standard, demon (harder, pays more), goblin (easier, pays less), or an alternate with its payout multiplier — and the whole read updates to it. Only the standard line takes an under; every other variant pays the over only. Each rung’s FireFactor is scored against its OWN payout breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for that payout, not a coin flip — so rungs compare directly. The bar uses the best information available: an exact posted multiplier, else the market’s de-vigged sportsbook odds at that exact line, else a published-payout approximation.
How PrizePicks payouts work with demons & goblins
Typical entry payouts (verify in the app — they change and can vary by state): Power Play 2-pick 3×, 3-pick 5×, 4-pick 10×. Flex Play 3-pick 2.25× (1.25× one miss), 4-pick 5× (1.5× one miss), 5-pick 10× (2× / 0.4× on misses), 6-pick 25× (2× / 0.4× on misses).
Demons: Adding a demon raises the whole entry’s payout multiple (a harder line buys a bigger multiplier). Demons can only be taken as More.
Goblins: Adding a goblin lowers the whole entry’s payout multiple (an easier line costs payout). Goblins can only be taken as More and aren’t combinable with everything — the app shows the exact adjusted payout.
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOTShots on TargetNo readFireFactor 1/100· model 8% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line13argues against it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.1 SOT
L5 1.4 · L10 1.2 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Scored against this payout variant's ~35% breakeven — 0 means fairly priced for its payout, not a coin flip. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
10%over
1 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 2%–40%Last 2017 games
6%over
1 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 1%–27%Season17 games
6%over
1 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 1%–27%Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home14%1/7Low
Away0%0/10Medium
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days7%1/14Medium
Last matchup — @ MTL
Jul 25, 2026
13thof 32 in SOT allowed to forwards
MTL allows 0.6 SOT per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 68 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Germán Berterame has gone over 2.5 SOT 1 of 10 decided times (10%) — versus 6% across the full season. MTL has been a middling matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 13th-most SOT of 32 teams (0.6 per game). His game-to-game SOT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 6%.
More Germán Berterame research
Descriptive research from public game logs — hit rates describe past games and are not predictions, picks, or betting advice.