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Houston DynamoGuilherme Augusto
#20 · F · 5' 11" · 141 lb · 26 games
Stats updated: Sep 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots · season avg 2.7 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency5argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
2.9 SH(×1.10 context)
L5 2.6 · L10 2.6 · med 2.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season26 games
50%over
13 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–68%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 92% | 24/26 | ||
| 81% | 21/26 | ||
| 2.5Current | 50% | 13/26 | |
| 27% | 7/26 | ||
| 19% | 5/26 | ||
| 4% | 1/26 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%7/14Low
Away50%6/12Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days20%1/5Low
3+ days58%11/19Medium
Next matchup — vs SKC
Sep 27, 2026
1stof 32 in SH allowed to forwards
SKC allows 2.0 SH per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 105 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Guilherme Augusto has gone over 2.5 SH 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. SKC has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 1st-most SH of 32 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.