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LA GalaxyJoão Klauss
#99 · F · 8 games
Stats updated: Apr 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Shots · season avg 2.5 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 8/100· model 46% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line46neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.2 SH
L5 2.6 · L10 2.5 · med 3.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.6
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 108 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Last 208 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Season8 games
63%over
5 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–86%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 2.5Current | 63% | 5/8 | |
| 25% | 2/8 | ||
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
3+ days71%5/7Low
Last matchup — @ DAL
Apr 19, 2026
25thof 32 in SH allowed to forwards
DAL allows 1.3 SH per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 73 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 8 games, João Klauss has gone over 2.5 SH 5 of 8 decided times (63%) — versus 63% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most SH of 32 teams (1.3 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.6), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 63%.