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LA GalaxyJoseph Paintsil
#28 · F · 5' 7" · 152 lb · 15 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 2.1 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 56% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)76supports it
Projection vs line56neutral
Consistency6argues against it
Projection
2.6 SH
L5 2.6 · L10 2.5 · med 2.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2015 games
40%over
6 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 20%–64%Season15 games
40%over
6 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 20%–64%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 14/15 | ||
| 67% | 10/15 | ||
| 2.5Current | 40% | 6/15 | |
| 7% | 1/15 | ||
| 7% | 1/15 | ||
| 0% | 0/15 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home38%3/8Low
Away43%3/7Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days27%3/11Low
Last matchup — vs DAL
Aug 1, 2026
25thof 32 in SH allowed to forwards
DAL allows 1.3 SH per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 73 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Joseph Paintsil has gone over 2.5 SH 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 40% across the full season. DAL has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most SH of 32 teams (1.3 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 40%.