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LA GalaxyJT Marcinkowski
#12 · G · 6' 1" · 183 lb · 20 games
Stats updated: Sep 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Saves · season avg 4.0 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 SVSavesWarm overFireFactor 41/100· model 67% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)83supports it
Projection vs line67supports it
Consistency18argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
5.0 SV(×1.03 context)
L5 5.2 · L10 4.4 · med 4.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season20 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 20/20 | ||
| 90% | 18/20 | ||
| 70% | 14/20 | ||
| 3.5Current | 60% | 12/20 | |
| 35% | 7/20 | ||
| 25% | 5/20 | ||
| 10% | 2/20 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home78%7/9Low
Away45%5/11Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days75%3/4Low
3+ days57%8/14Low
Next matchup — @ MIN
Sep 20, 2026
12thof 32 in SV allowed to goalkeepers
MIN allows 3.2 SV per game to goalkeepers (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 25 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, JT Marcinkowski has gone over 3.5 SV 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 60% across the full season. MIN has been a middling matchup for goalkeepers this season, allowing the 12th-most SV of 32 teams (3.2 per game). His game-to-game SV have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.