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D.C. UnitedLouis Munteanu
#11 · F · 6' 0" · 14 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 3.0 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 2.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 62% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)78supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency4argues against it
Projection
3.4 SH
L5 3.6 · L10 3.5 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.6 · ceil 5.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2014 games
57%over
8 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%Season14 games
57%over
8 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 33%–79%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 13/14 | ||
| 79% | 11/14 | ||
| 2.5Current | 57% | 8/14 | |
| 36% | 5/14 | ||
| 29% | 4/14 | ||
| 7% | 1/14 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home78%7/9Low
Away20%1/5Low
Days since last game
1 day100%1/1Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days50%5/10Low
Last matchup — vs NSH
Aug 1, 2026
29thof 32 in SH allowed to forwards
NSH allows 1.2 SH per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 77 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Louis Munteanu has gone over 2.5 SH 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 57% across the full season. NSH has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 29th-most SH of 32 teams (1.2 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 57%.