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NashvilleShakur Mohammed
#14 · M · 5' 10" · 159 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots · season avg 1.1 SH · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SHShotsNo readFireFactor 18/100· model 62% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)86supports it
Projection vs line62supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.3 SH
L5 1.4 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Last 208 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Season8 games
38%over
3 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 14%–69%Alternate lines — Shots (SH)
SH over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 5/8 | ||
| 1.5Current | 38% | 3/8 | |
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SH by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
3+ days33%2/6Low
Last matchup — @ DC
Aug 1, 2026
6thof 32 in SH allowed to midfielders
DC allows 1.1 SH per game to midfielders (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 99 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Shakur Mohammed has gone over 1.5 SH 3 of 8 decided times (38%) — versus 38% across the full season. DC has been a favorable matchup for midfielders this season, allowing the 6th-most SH of 32 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game SH have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 38%.