Minnesota United

Tomás Chancalay Shots on Target

Stats updated: Aug 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Tomás Chancalay has gone over 0.5 SOT in 6 of his last 10 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

Line

PrizePicksShots on Target · season avg 0.8 SOT · our line

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Verdict

vs 0.5 SOTShots on Target

No readFireFactor 7/100· model 60% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)68supports it

Projection vs line60supports it

Consistency0argues against it

Projection

1.1 SOT

L5 1.2 · L10 1.0 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.6

Matchup

defense vs role

Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 1010 games

60%over

6 over · 4 under

Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%

Last 2018 games

56%over

10 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%

Season18 games

56%over

10 over · 8 under

Medium confidence95% CI 34%–75%

Alternate lines — Shots on Target (SOT)

SOT over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate SOT line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	56%	10/18
	22%	4/18
	6%	1/18
	0%	0/18

Last 18 games — SOT per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 SOT by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home44%4/9Low

Away67%6/9Low

Days since last game

1 day67%2/3Low

3+ days50%7/14Low

Last matchup — vs SD

Aug 1, 2026

9thof 32 in SOT allowed to forwards

SD allows 0.7 SOT per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 72 player-games

Favorable

The read

Over his last 10 games, Tomás Chancalay has gone over 0.5 SOT 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 56% across the full season. SD has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 9th-most SOT of 32 teams (0.7 per game). His game-to-game SOT have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 56%.