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Anaheim DucksA.J. Greer
#18 · LW · 6' 3" · 224 lb · 7 games
Stats updated: Nov 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Boston University
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 2.1 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutA.J. Greer isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Upper Body
- Est. return:
- Nov 11, 2026
Greer suffered an upper-body injury in Sunday's 6-3 win over Ottawa. He will miss at least the next four games, starting with Tuesday's matchup against Vancouver, but it's unclear when he will be ready to return. Greer has four goals, six points, 23 shots on net and 36 hits in 13 appearances this season.
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 68% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
2.0 SOG(×1.07 context)
L5 1.8 · L10 2.1 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.2 · ceil 3.6
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 107 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Last 207 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Season7 games
29%over
2 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 8%–64%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 6/7 | ||
| 71% | 5/7 | ||
| 2.5Current | 29% | 2/7 | |
| 29% | 2/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 | ||
| 0% | 0/7 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home0%0/3Low
Away50%2/4Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/2Low
2 days0%0/1Low
3+ days33%1/3Low
Next matchup — vs PIT
Nov 9, 2026
4thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
PIT allows 2.1 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 102 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 7 games, A.J. Greer has gone over 2.5 SOG 2 of 7 decided times (29%) — versus 29% across the full season. PIT has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 4th-most SOG of 32 teams (2.1 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 29%.