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Seattle KrakenAdam Larsson
#6 · D · 6' 3" · 207 lb · 46 games
Stats updated: Apr 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.5 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 7/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)80supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
2.3 SOG(×0.95 context)
L5 3.4 · L10 2.5 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
60%over
6 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 31%–83%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season46 games
37%over
17 over · 29 under
Medium confidence95% CI 25%–51%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 72% | 33/46 | ||
| 1.5Current | 37% | 17/46 | |
| 26% | 12/46 | ||
| 13% | 6/46 | ||
| 0% | 0/46 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home43%9/21Medium
Away32%8/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day38%6/16Medium
2 days50%3/6Low
3+ days37%7/19Medium
Last matchup — @ COL
Apr 17, 2026
31stof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
COL allows 1.1 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 266 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Adam Larsson has gone over 1.5 SOG 6 of 10 decided times (60%) — versus 37% across the full season. COL has been a tough matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 31st-most SOG of 32 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 37%.