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Edmonton OilersAlex Formenton
#26 · LW · 6' 3" · 195 lb · 4 games
Stats updated: Oct 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 4 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 0.8 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 49% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line49neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
0.7 SOG(×0.95 context)
L5 0.8 · L10 0.8 · med 0.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 1.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line on a small sample, so read with extra caution. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.
Last 54 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 104 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Last 204 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Season4 games
50%over
2 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 15%–85%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 50% | 2/4 | |
| 25% | 1/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 | ||
| 0% | 0/4 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home100%1/1Low
Away33%1/3Low
Days since last game
1 day0%0/1Low
3+ days50%1/2Low
Next matchup — @ UTAH
Oct 18, 2026
25thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
UTAH allows 1.6 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 51 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 4 games, Alex Formenton has gone over 0.5 SOG 2 of 4 decided times (50%) — versus 50% across the full season. UTAH has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 1.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 48.7%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 51.3%
Best Over
BetMGM+135
+14.5% EV
Best Under
Hard Rock Bet+105
+5.1% EV
Model vs market (over)-0.2%
Our model puts the over at 48.5% vs the market's no-vig 48.7%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Shots on Goal (SOG)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 SOG). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 50%.