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Buffalo SabresAlex Lyon
#34 · G · 6' 1" · 199 lb · 40 games
Stats updated: May 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Yale
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Saves · season avg 26.5 SV · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAlex Lyon isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Shoulder
- Est. return:
- Nov 22, 2026
According to the team, Lyon was originally expected to be in the crease for Tuesday's road clash with Montreal before suffering his setback. Even once given the all-clear, there may not be enough games to go around to make Lyon more than a low-end fantasy target, especially as long as Buffalo continues rostering three goalies.
Verdict
vs 26.5 SVSavesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 57% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)57neutral
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency64supports it
Projection
26.8 SV(×1.02 context)
L5 26.4 · L10 24.4 · med 24.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 23.0 · ceil 31.2
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season40 games
55%over
22 over · 18 under
Medium confidence95% CI 40%–69%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 28/40 | ||
| 63% | 25/40 | ||
| 60% | 24/40 | ||
| 26.5Current | 55% | 22/40 | |
| 43% | 17/40 | ||
| 35% | 14/40 | ||
| 30% | 12/40 |
Situational splits
Over 26.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home62%13/21Medium
Away47%9/19Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day82%9/11Medium
2 days33%3/9Low
3+ days44%8/18Medium
Last matchup — @ MTL
May 10, 2026
15thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
MTL allows 24.2 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 17 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alex Lyon has gone over 26.5 SV 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 55% across the full season. MTL has been a middling matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 15th-most SV of 32 teams (24.2 per game). His game-to-game SV have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 5.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 55%.