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San Jose SharksAlex Nedeljkovic
#33 · G · 6' 0" · 203 lb · 39 games
Stats updated: Apr 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Line
Saves · season avg 24.0 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 24.5 SVSavesNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 54% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line54neutral
Consistency45neutral
Projection
24.6 SV(×1.04 context)
L5 23.8 · L10 19.9 · med 21.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 17.8 · ceil 29.4
Matchup
D
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season39 games
51%over
20 over · 19 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–66%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 64% | 25/39 | ||
| 62% | 24/39 | ||
| 59% | 23/39 | ||
| 24.5Current | 51% | 20/39 | |
| 46% | 18/39 | ||
| 38% | 15/39 | ||
| 31% | 12/39 |
Situational splits
Over 24.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home50%10/20Medium
Away53%10/19Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low
1 day40%2/5Low
2 days71%5/7Low
3+ days50%12/24Medium
Last matchup — @ WPG
Apr 17, 2026
22ndof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
WPG allows 23.2 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 81 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Alex Nedeljkovic has gone over 24.5 SV 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 51% across the full season. WPG has been a tough matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 22nd-most SV of 32 teams (23.2 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 51%.