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New Jersey DevilsAnthony Mantha
#39 · RW · 6' 5" · 240 lb · 8 games
Stats updated: Nov 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Linepays more
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.3 SOG · PrizePicks lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutAnthony Mantha isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Neck
- Est. return:
- Nov 12, 2026
out
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 40% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)0argues against it
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup75supports it
Projection
1.6 SOG(×1.03 context)
L5 1.6 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 1.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 108 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Last 208 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Season8 games
25%over
2 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 7%–59%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 7/8 | ||
| 1.5Current | 25% | 2/8 | |
| 13% | 1/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 | ||
| 0% | 0/8 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home25%1/4Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day0%0/2Low
3+ days25%1/4Low
Next matchup — @ TOR
Nov 9, 2026
9thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
TOR allows 2.0 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 106 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 8 games, Anthony Mantha has gone over 1.5 SOG 2 of 8 decided times (25%) — versus 25% across the full season. TOR has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 9th-most SOG of 32 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
4 books @ 1.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 45.5%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 54.5%
Best Over
DraftKings+110
-4.4% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-130
-3.6% EV
Model vs market (over)-5.9%
Our model puts the over at 39.6% vs the market's no-vig 45.5%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Line shopping — Shots on Goal (SOG)
Each book’s line and your season over rate at that number, vs the market consensus (1.5 SOG). A softer number you’d clear more often is a discount — the best one lifts the FireFactor read. Click a book to switch the whole read to it.
over rate = season hit rate at that line. Edge = points of hit rate vs the consensus line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate. This demon/goblin/alternate line pays the over only — no under to price.
Over only — this payout variant doesn't take an under.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 25%.