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Toronto Maple LeafsAuston Matthews
#34 · C · 6' 3" · 217 lb · 29 games
Stats updated: Mar 12, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 4.1 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 4.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 15/100· model 57% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)74supports it
Projection vs line57neutral
Consistency19argues against it
Projection
4.2 SOG(×1.03 context)
L5 3.6 · L10 4.2 · med 4.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season29 games
41%over
12 over · 17 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–59%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 27/29 | ||
| 72% | 21/29 | ||
| 62% | 18/29 | ||
| 4.5Current | 41% | 12/29 | |
| 28% | 8/29 | ||
| 10% | 3/29 | ||
| 7% | 2/29 |
Situational splits
Over 4.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home40%6/15Medium
Away43%6/14Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day57%4/7Low
2 days20%1/5Low
3+ days38%5/13Low
Last matchup — @ MTL
Mar 10, 2026
6thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
MTL allows 2.0 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 610 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Auston Matthews has gone over 4.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 41% across the full season. MTL has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 6th-most SOG of 32 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 41%.