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New York IslandersBo Horvat
#14 · C · 6' 1" · 225 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: Apr 14, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 12 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 3.8 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 3.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 48% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)53neutral
Projection vs line48neutral
Consistency5argues against it
Projection
3.5 SOG(×0.97 context)
L5 4.2 · L10 4.2 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 2.0 · ceil 6.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season33 games
52%over
17 over · 16 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–67%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100% | 33/33 | ||
| 85% | 28/33 | ||
| 67% | 22/33 | ||
| 3.5Current | 52% | 17/33 | |
| 33% | 11/33 | ||
| 24% | 8/33 | ||
| 9% | 3/33 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home53%8/15Low
Away50%9/18Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)60%3/5Low
1 day67%4/6Low
2 days50%3/6Low
3+ days40%6/15Medium
Last matchup — vs OTT
Apr 11, 2026
32ndof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
OTT allows 1.6 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 506 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Bo Horvat has gone over 3.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 52% across the full season. OTT has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 32nd-most SOG of 32 teams (1.6 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.