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Florida PanthersBrad Marchand
#63 · LW · 5' 9" · 180 lb · 40 games
Stats updated: Mar 7, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 18 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 3.0 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrad Marchand isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Lower Body
- Est. return:
- Nov 2, 2026
Marchand will miss Florida's first 14 regular-season games if he's able to return Nov. 2 versus Detroit. He had 27 goals, 54 points, 38 PIM and 36 hits in 52 regular-season outings with the Panthers in 2025-26. The 38-year-old might find it difficult to initially shake off the rust after missing the start of the campaign, which could impact his production after returning from the injury.
Verdict
vs 2.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)63supports it
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
2.6 SOG(×0.85 context)
L5 3.6 · L10 3.2 · med 3.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
60%over
12 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 39%–78%Season40 games
53%over
21 over · 19 under
Medium confidence95% CI 37%–67%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 37/40 | ||
| 78% | 31/40 | ||
| 2.5Current | 53% | 21/40 | |
| 38% | 15/40 | ||
| 13% | 5/40 | ||
| 10% | 4/40 |
Situational splits
Over 2.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home59%16/27Medium
Away38%5/13Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)56%5/9Low
1 day33%4/12Low
2 days60%3/5Low
3+ days58%7/12Low
With a teammate out
How this SOG line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Jonah Gadjovich out · Not Specified Upper Body Surgery-0.5 SOG when he sits
Without (31g)
2.8 SOG
52% over 2.5
With (9g)
3.3 SOG
56% over 2.5
Next matchup — @ CAR
Sep 22, 2026
31stof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
CAR allows 1.7 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 597 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brad Marchand has gone over 2.5 SOG 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 53% across the full season. CAR has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 31st-most SOG of 32 teams (1.7 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 2.0), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.