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Florida PanthersBrad Marchand
#63 · LW · 5' 9" · 180 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 11 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 19 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 3.0 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutBrad Marchand isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Left Knee
- Est. return:
- Nov 21, 2026
Marchand has appeared in just two games for the Panthers this season, as he sustained a left-leg injury on Oct. 6. He seems to be progressing through his expected six-week timeline for return smoothly, as he's now down to half that. The 38-year-old winger will likely be ramped up over the next few weeks, and barring any setbacks, he should have a chance to return to the Panthers' lineup prior to U.S. Thanksgiving. For now, he's a solid IR stash in all fantasy formats.
Verdict
vs 3.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 65% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line65supports it
Consistency2argues against it
Matchup25argues against it
Projection
2.7 SOG(×0.95 context)
L5 3.0 · L10 3.3 · med 3.5
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 4.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2011 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Season11 games
45%over
5 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 21%–72%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 10/11 | ||
| 73% | 8/11 | ||
| 64% | 7/11 | ||
| 3.5Current | 45% | 5/11 | |
| 18% | 2/11 | ||
| 9% | 1/11 | ||
| 0% | 0/11 |
Situational splits
Over 3.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home57%4/7Low
Away25%1/4Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day0%0/2Low
2 days100%1/1Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
Next matchup — vs CHI
Nov 5, 2026
9thof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
CHI allows 2.0 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 78 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Brad Marchand has gone over 3.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 45% across the full season. CHI has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 9th-most SOG of 32 teams (2.0 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.8), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 45%.