Pittsburgh Penguins

Bryan Rust Points

Stats updated: Oct 19, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.

Bryan Rust has gone over 0.5 PTS in 3 of his last 5 decided games (60%), measured against our typical-game line.

College: Notre Dame
Experience: 14 seasons

Line

PrizePicksPoints · season avg 0.6 PTS · our line

Save this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it

OutBryan Rust isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.

Injury:: Lower Body
Est. return:: Dec 5, 2026

Rust has offered decent offensive production through seven games this year, registering three goals, two assists and nine shots. With the 34year-old winger facing an extended absence, the team has already placed him on injured reserve and could still move him to LTIR in the coming days. For now, Thomas Novak will get first crack at playing on the top line with Sidney Crosby, though his hold on Rust's spot should be considered tenuous at best.

Verdict

vs 0.5 PTSPoints

No readFireFactor 0/100· model 44% over

Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it

Projection vs line44neutral

Consistency0argues against it

Matchup25argues against it

Projection

0.5 PTS(×0.95 context)

L5 0.6 · L10 0.6 · med 1.0

Consistency

Boom-Bust

floor 0.0 · ceil 1.0

Matchup

defense vs role

Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.

Book links are referral links — we may earn a commission. It never affects the numbers on this page.

Last 55 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 105 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Last 205 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Season5 games

60%over

3 over · 2 under

Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%

Alternate lines — Points (PTS)

PTS over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.

Over hit rate and 95% Wilson confidence interval at each alternate PTS line, season window
Line	Over	O / U
0.5Current	60%	3/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5
	0%	0/5

Last 5 games — PTS per game vs. line 0.5. Warm = over, cool = under.

Situational splits

Over 0.5 PTS by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.

Home / Away

Home0%0/1Low

Away75%3/4Low

Days since last game

0 days (B2B)0%0/2Low

1 day100%1/1Low

3+ days100%1/1Low

Next matchup — vs BOS

Nov 6, 2026

25thof 32 in PTS allowed to forwards

BOS allows 0.5 PTS per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).

Sample: 92 player-games

Tough

The read

Over his last 5 games, Bryan Rust has gone over 0.5 PTS 3 of 5 decided times (60%) — versus 60% across the full season. BOS has been a tough matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 25th-most PTS of 32 teams (0.5 per game). His game-to-game PTS have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.

Fair-price calculator

Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.

Over oddsUnder odds

Edge vs

Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 60%.