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Boston BruinsCharlie McAvoy
#73 · D · 6' 1" · 211 lb · 36 games
Stats updated: May 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Boston University
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.9 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutCharlie McAvoy isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Suspension
- Est. return:
- Oct 13, 2026
McAvoy is set to serve a six-game suspension to begin the year after slashing the Sabres' Zach Benson during the Bruins' first-round series loss last season. While the right-shot defenseman's draft stock may have dipped ever so slightly because of the suspension, fantasy managers should keep in mind that McAvoy is coming off a career-best year (11 goals, 61 points in 69 regular-season games), so don't let him fall too far in upcoming drafts. The 28-year-old is eligible to make his 2026-27 debut Oct. 13 in San Jose.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 52% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)79supports it
Projection vs line52neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup0argues against it
Projection
1.7 SOG(×0.92 context)
L5 1.6 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
60%over
3 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 23%–88%Last 1010 games
70%over
7 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 40%–89%Last 2020 games
65%over
13 over · 7 under
Medium confidence95% CI 43%–82%Season36 games
58%over
21 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 42%–73%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 78% | 28/36 | ||
| 1.5Current | 58% | 21/36 | |
| 33% | 12/36 | ||
| 14% | 5/36 | ||
| 3% | 1/36 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home61%11/18Medium
Away56%10/18Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%1/2Low
1 day57%4/7Low
2 days86%6/7Low
3+ days47%9/19Medium
Next matchup — vs PHI
Sep 22, 2026
28thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
PHI allows 1.2 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 289 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Charlie McAvoy has gone over 1.5 SOG 7 of 10 decided times (70%) — versus 58% across the full season. PHI has been a tough matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 28th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.2 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.4), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 58%.