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Winnipeg JetsCole Koepke
#45 · LW · 6' 1" · 207 lb · 19 games
Stats updated: Apr 17, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Minnesota Duluth
- Experience
- 3 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.9 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 51% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)56neutral
Projection vs line51neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.6 SOG(×1.02 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.6 · med 1.5
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2019 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Season19 games
53%over
10 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 32%–73%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 89% | 17/19 | ||
| 1.5Current | 53% | 10/19 | |
| 32% | 6/19 | ||
| 11% | 2/19 | ||
| 5% | 1/19 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%4/9Low
Away60%6/10Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)50%2/4Low
1 day25%1/4Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days75%6/8Low
Last matchup — vs SJ
Apr 17, 2026
3rdof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
SJ allows 2.2 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 472 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Cole Koepke has gone over 1.5 SOG 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 53% across the full season. SJ has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 3rd-most SOG of 32 teams (2.2 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.