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Edmonton OilersConnor Murphy
#5 · D · 6' 4" · 212 lb · 33 games
Stats updated: May 1, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 13 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.1 SOGSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 0.5 SOGShots on GoalHot overFireFactor 59/100· model 76% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line76supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Projection
1.7 SOG(×1.02 context)
L5 2.0 · L10 1.4 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
100%over
5 over · 0 under
Medium confidence95% CI 57%–100%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2020 games
70%over
14 over · 6 under
Medium confidence95% CI 48%–85%Season33 games
73%over
24 over · 9 under
Medium confidence95% CI 56%–85%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5Current | 73% | 24/33 | |
| 24% | 8/33 | ||
| 6% | 2/33 | ||
| 3% | 1/33 |
Situational splits
Over 0.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home65%11/17Medium
Away81%13/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)75%3/4Low
1 day77%10/13Medium
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days69%9/13Medium
Last matchup — @ ANA
May 1, 2026
15thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
ANA allows 1.4 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 297 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Connor Murphy has gone over 0.5 SOG 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 73% across the full season. ANA has been a middling matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 15th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.4 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 73%.