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Tampa Bay LightningDennis Hildeby
#35 · G · 6' 7" · 222 lb · 17 games
Stats updated: Apr 15, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- Rookie
Line
Saves · season avg 28.2 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 28.5 SVSavesNo readFireFactor 9/100· model 53% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)54neutral
Projection vs line53neutral
Consistency61supports it
Projection
29.2 SV(×1.00 context)
L5 28.2 · L10 27.2 · med 27.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 22.0 · ceil 33.0
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
40%over
4 over · 6 under
Low confidence95% CI 17%–69%Last 2017 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Season17 games
53%over
9 over · 8 under
Medium confidence95% CI 31%–74%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 65% | 11/17 | ||
| 53% | 9/17 | ||
| 28.5Current | 53% | 9/17 | |
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 | ||
| 41% | 7/17 |
Situational splits
Over 28.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away44%4/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day50%2/4Low
2 days50%1/2Low
3+ days56%5/9Low
Last matchup — @ OTT
Apr 15, 2026
8thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
OTT allows 25.5 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 84 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Dennis Hildeby has gone over 28.5 SV 4 of 10 decided times (40%) — versus 53% across the full season. OTT has been a favorable matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 8th-most SV of 32 teams (25.5 per game). His game-to-game SV have been fairly steady (σ ≈ 6.7), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.