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Winnipeg JetsElias Salomonsson
#57 · D · 19 games
Stats updated: Apr 3, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.4 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutElias Salomonsson isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Shoulder Surgery
- Est. return:
- Oct 29, 2026
Salomonsson skated in a regular sweater ahead of the Jets' practice session to begin training camp Thursday, but it appears as though he's still in his recovery process after undergoing shoulder surgery in late April. While it appears as though the 22-year-old has made encouraging progress in his recovery, the Jets are indicating that they're preparing to play without him for at least the first few weeks of the regular season.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 70% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line70supports it
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
1.2 SOG(×0.95 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.1 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 1.0 · ceil 2.0
Matchup
F
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2019 games
32%over
6 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–54%Season19 games
32%over
6 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 15%–54%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 84% | 16/19 | ||
| 1.5Current | 32% | 6/19 | |
| 11% | 2/19 | ||
| 5% | 1/19 | ||
| 5% | 1/19 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home30%3/10Low
Away33%3/9Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)0%0/4Low
1 day25%1/4Low
2 days40%2/5Low
3+ days60%3/5Low
With a teammate out
How this SOG line has shifted when an injured teammate sits — usage often rises. Descriptive splits from past games, not a forecast.
Connor Hellebuyck out · Suspension-0.2 SOG when he sits
Without (4g)
1.3 SOG
25% over 1.5
With (15g)
1.5 SOG
33% over 1.5
Next matchup — vs EDM
Sep 23, 2026
30thof 32 in SOG allowed to defensemen
EDM allows 1.1 SOG per game to defensemen (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 261 player-games
ToughThe read
Over his last 10 games, Elias Salomonsson has gone over 1.5 SOG 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 32% across the full season. EDM has been a tough matchup for defensemen this season, allowing the 30th-most SOG of 32 teams (1.1 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.3), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 32%.