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Columbus Blue JacketsElvis Merzlikins
#90 · G · 6' 3" · 190 lb · 27 games
Stats updated: Apr 2, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 8 seasons
Line
Saves · season avg 26.2 SV · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutElvis Merzlikins isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Shoulder Surgery
- Est. return:
- Mar 30, 2027
Less than 24 hours after Merzlikins was traded to the Maple Leafs, a timetable for his return to action has been provided. The 32-year-old backstop had an up and down season in 2025-26, where he posted a 14-11-3 record, a 3.39 GAA and an .883 save percentage across 30 regular-season outings. He won't be rushed into action, as the Leafs new goaltender tandem of Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz are still expected to handle the majority of reps between the pipes this upcoming season. However, when Merzlikins is ready to return, he's the clear No. 3 option in Toronto's organization and could still see some playing time at the NHL level if he isn't sent down to AHL Toronto.
Verdict
vs 25.5 SVSavesNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 42% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)44neutral
Projection vs line42neutral
Consistency55neutral
Matchup50neutral
Projection
22.1 SV(×0.97 context)
L5 19.8 · L10 21.3 · med 19.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 20.0 · ceil 31.6
Matchup
C
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
45%over
9 over · 11 under
Medium confidence95% CI 26%–66%Season27 games
52%over
14 over · 13 under
Medium confidence95% CI 34%–69%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 67% | 18/27 | ||
| 67% | 18/27 | ||
| 56% | 15/27 | ||
| 25.5Current | 52% | 14/27 | |
| 48% | 13/27 | ||
| 41% | 11/27 | ||
| 37% | 10/27 |
Situational splits
Over 25.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home63%5/8Low
Away47%9/19Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day25%1/4Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days47%9/19Medium
Next matchup — vs DAL
Nov 6, 2026
20thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
DAL allows 23.0 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 14 player-games
NeutralThe read
Over his last 10 games, Elvis Merzlikins has gone over 25.5 SV 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 52% across the full season. DAL has been a middling matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 20th-most SV of 32 teams (23.0 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.