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Vancouver CanucksFilip Chytil
#77 · C · 6' 2" · 210 lb · 11 games
Too few games this season to read on their own, so 4 of these 11 are carried over from last season. Expect this read to move as the season fills in.
Stats updated: Oct 29, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 10 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.9 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutFilip Chytil isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Not Specified Upper Body Not Specified
- Est. return:
- Nov 9, 2026
Given that Chytil landed on injured reserve Oct. 30, he was only eligible to appear in the Canucks' second contest of the team's upcoming two-game road trip. When healthy this season, the 27-year-old center has posted two points, 13 shots on net and six blocked shots over seven appearances. Once the Canucks' return to Vancouver, Chytil's first opportunity to be activated from injured reserve and make his return is Monday's clash against the Flyers.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 73% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)100supports it
Projection vs line73supports it
Consistency21argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
2.4 SOG(×1.12 context)
L5 2.2 · L10 2.0 · med 2.0
Consistency
Variable
floor 1.0 · ceil 3.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
80%over
8 over · 2 under
Low confidence95% CI 49%–94%Last 2011 games
73%over
8 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 43%–90%Season11 games
73%over
8 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 43%–90%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 91% | 10/11 | ||
| 1.5Current | 73% | 8/11 | |
| 27% | 3/11 | ||
| 0% | 0/11 | ||
| 0% | 0/11 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home75%3/4Low
Away71%5/7Low
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day75%3/4Low
2 days100%2/2Low
3+ days67%2/3Low
Next matchup — vs PHI
Nov 10, 2026
3rdof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
PHI allows 2.1 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Filip Chytil has gone over 1.5 SOG 8 of 10 decided times (80%) — versus 73% across the full season. PHI has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 3rd-most SOG of 32 teams (2.1 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 0.9), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Market edgeauto
1 book @ 2.5 SOG- No-vig fair (over)
- 42.8%
- No-vig fair (under)
- 57.2%
Best Over
BetMGM+115
-8.1% EV
Best Under
BetMGM-165
-8.1% EV
Model vs market (over)+30.6%
Our model puts the over at 73.4% vs the market's no-vig 42.8%. A comparison of two numbers — not a guarantee.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 73%.