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Minnesota WildFilip Gustavsson
#32 · G · 6' 2" · 197 lb · 50 games
Stats updated: May 6, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 5 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Saves · season avg 25.1 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 25.5 SVSavesCool underFireFactor 24/100· model 59% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)62supports it
Projection vs line59neutral
Consistency57neutral
Projection
20.9 SV(×0.98 context)
L5 20.0 · L10 20.9 · med 20.0
Consistency
Steady
floor 19.8 · ceil 30.0
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
20%over
1 over · 4 under
Low confidence95% CI 4%–62%Last 1010 games
20%over
2 over · 8 under
Low confidence95% CI 6%–51%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season50 games
48%over
24 over · 26 under
Medium confidence95% CI 35%–61%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 68% | 34/50 | ||
| 60% | 30/50 | ||
| 56% | 28/50 | ||
| 25.5Current | 48% | 24/50 | |
| 40% | 20/50 | ||
| 36% | 18/50 | ||
| 34% | 17/50 |
Situational splits
Over 25.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home52%13/25Medium
Away44%11/25Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)100%1/1Low
1 day60%6/10Low
2 days47%7/15Low
3+ days39%9/23Medium
Last matchup — @ COL
May 6, 2026
1stof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
COL allows 29.3 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 94 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Filip Gustavsson has gone over 25.5 SV 2 of 10 decided times (20%) — versus 48% across the full season. COL has been a favorable matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 1st-most SV of 32 teams (29.3 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.