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Dallas StarsJake Oettinger
#29 · G · 6' 6" · 224 lb · 58 games
Stats updated: Apr 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- College
- Boston University
- Experience
- 6 seasons
Top reads — this player & matchup
pick one to load it belowRanked by FireFactor for the next matchup, straight from the game logs.
Line
Saves · season avg 23.8 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 23.5 SVSavesWarm overFireFactor 24/100· model 68% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line68supports it
Consistency57neutral
Projection
26.6 SV(×1.10 context)
L5 27.2 · L10 24.6 · med 23.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 18.4 · ceil 27.6
Matchup
B
defense vs role
Recent history runs over on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
80%over
4 over · 1 under
Low confidence95% CI 38%–96%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season58 games
52%over
30 over · 28 under
High confidence95% CI 39%–64%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 71% | 41/58 | ||
| 67% | 39/58 | ||
| 57% | 33/58 | ||
| 23.5Current | 52% | 30/58 | |
| 41% | 24/58 | ||
| 36% | 21/58 | ||
| 31% | 18/58 |
Situational splits
Over 23.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home53%17/32Medium
Away50%13/26Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)40%2/5Low
1 day50%9/18Medium
2 days46%6/13Low
3+ days62%13/21Medium
Last matchup — @ MIN
Apr 30, 2026
9thof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
MIN allows 25.4 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 92 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jake Oettinger has gone over 23.5 SV 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 52% across the full season. MIN has been a favorable matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 9th-most SV of 32 teams (25.4 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 6.1), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 52%.