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Montreal CanadiensJakub Dobes
#75 · G · 6' 4" · 215 lb · 60 games
Stats updated: May 30, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 2 seasons
Line
Saves · season avg 25.8 SVSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
Verdict
vs 26.5 SVSavesNo readFireFactor 6/100· model 44% under
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)55neutral
Projection vs line44neutral
Consistency52neutral
Projection
29.7 SV(×1.04 context)
L5 29.8 · L10 29.1 · med 26.5
Consistency
Steady
floor 18.8 · ceil 32.2
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Recent history runs under on this line. Descriptive research from past games — not betting advice.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
50%over
5 over · 5 under
Low confidence95% CI 24%–76%Last 2020 games
50%over
10 over · 10 under
Medium confidence95% CI 30%–70%Season60 games
48%over
29 over · 31 under
High confidence95% CI 36%–61%Alternate lines — Saves (SV)
SV over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 63% | 38/60 | ||
| 58% | 35/60 | ||
| 55% | 33/60 | ||
| 26.5Current | 48% | 29/60 | |
| 43% | 26/60 | ||
| 35% | 21/60 | ||
| 33% | 20/60 |
Situational splits
Over 26.5 SV by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home41%12/29Medium
Away55%17/31Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)33%1/3Low
1 day52%11/21Medium
2 days54%7/13Low
3+ days41%9/22Medium
Last matchup — @ CAR
May 30, 2026
2ndof 32 in SV allowed to goalies
CAR allows 28.2 SV per game to goalies (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 99 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jakub Dobes has gone over 26.5 SV 5 of 10 decided times (50%) — versus 48% across the full season. CAR has been a favorable matchup for goalies this season, allowing the 2nd-most SV of 32 teams (28.2 per game). His game-to-game SV have been moderately variable (σ ≈ 7.5), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 48%.