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Calgary FlamesJonathan Huberdeau
#10 · LW · 6' 1" · 200 lb · 32 games
Stats updated: Feb 5, 2026 — nightly box scores, not live.
- Experience
- 15 seasons
Line
Shots on Goal · season avg 1.6 SOG · our lineSave this PrizePicks prop to your Playbook to track it
OutOutJonathan Huberdeau isn't expected to play — the read below describes past games only.
- Injury:
- Hip Surgery
- Est. return:
- Nov 21, 2026
Huberdeau shouldn't be expected back in the lineup against the Ducks on Friday, but at this point, he could be cleared at any point. The final step in the 33-year-old winger's return to action will be his activation off injured reserve. In 50 games last year, Huberdeau produced 25 points and could be capable of topping that number once cleared to play.
Verdict
vs 1.5 SOGShots on GoalNo readFireFactor 0/100· model 50% over
Hit rate (confidence-adjusted)50neutral
Projection vs line50neutral
Consistency0argues against it
Matchup100supports it
Projection
1.3 SOG(×1.05 context)
L5 1.4 · L10 1.3 · med 1.0
Consistency
Boom-Bust
floor 0.0 · ceil 2.8
Matchup
A
defense vs role
Player is Out — no read on this line.Small samples and hot streaks are discounted by a 95% Wilson lower bound (the trust factor), so a thin streak can’t masquerade as an edge.
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Last 55 games
40%over
2 over · 3 under
Low confidence95% CI 12%–77%Last 1010 games
30%over
3 over · 7 under
Low confidence95% CI 11%–60%Last 2020 games
40%over
8 over · 12 under
Medium confidence95% CI 22%–61%Season32 games
53%over
17 over · 15 under
Medium confidence95% CI 36%–69%Alternate lines — Shots on Goal (SOG)
SOG over rate across nearby lines (season) — find where the edge holds or flips. The bar shows the 95% Wilson interval; the dot is the point estimate. Click a line to run the full read at that number.
| Line | Over | O / U | Confidence interval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 75% | 24/32 | ||
| 1.5Current | 53% | 17/32 | |
| 22% | 7/32 | ||
| 9% | 3/32 | ||
| 0% | 0/32 |
Situational splits
Over 1.5 SOG by situation, each with its own confidence — thin splits read Low, so a small-sample “crushes at home” doesn’t masquerade as an edge.
Home / Away
Home44%7/16Medium
Away63%10/16Medium
Days since last game
0 days (B2B)67%2/3Low
1 day56%9/16Medium
2 days50%2/4Low
3+ days38%3/8Low
Next matchup — vs PHI
Nov 9, 2026
3rdof 32 in SOG allowed to forwards
PHI allows 2.1 SOG per game to forwards (rank 1 = allows the most).
Sample: 116 player-games
FavorableThe read
Over his last 10 games, Jonathan Huberdeau has gone over 1.5 SOG 3 of 10 decided times (30%) — versus 53% across the full season. PHI has been a favorable matchup for forwards this season, allowing the 3rd-most SOG of 32 teams (2.1 per game). His game-to-game SOG have been highly variable (σ ≈ 1.2), so short streaks can mislead. These are descriptive stats about past games, not predictions or betting advice.
Fair-price calculator
Enter the book's American odds to see implied probability, the no-vig fair price, and the edge vs. this player's season hit rate.
Edge vs
Hit rate excludes pushes from the denominator. Confidence uses a 95% Wilson interval — a high recent rate on few games still reads as low confidence. Season over rate at this line: 53%.